Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Apr 26 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 26-Apr 28 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 26-Apr 28 2017 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr 28 00-03UT 3 4 4 03-06UT 2 3 3 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 2 3 3 12-15UT 2 3 2 15-18UT 3 2 2 18-21UT 4 2 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 3 Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on day one (26 Apr) as CH HSS influences persist. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 26-Apr 28 2017 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr 28 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 26-Apr 28 2017 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr 28 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Real Time Images of the Sun
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
LASCO images have been used by the SWPC forecast office to characterize the solar corona heating and transient events, including CME's, and to see the effects of the corona on the solar wind. More recently, the LASCO images are vital to the WSA-Enlil model that became operational in October of 2011. WSA-Enlil has become an important tool for forecasting the impact of Coronal Mass Ejections and the effects of the Solar Wind on the Earth.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum is expected to occur in May, 2013.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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